Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 99% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 75% |
| Match Winner | 71% |
| Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs T1 Academy (+1.5) | 71% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 49% |
| Game 4 Winner | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 25% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 23% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 14% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 8% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 8% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs T1 Academy (+2.5) | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Solary (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Solary (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: solary vs t1 academy (bo5) - world star challengers invitational playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Solary and T1 Academy in the World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 5:00 A…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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