Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing its peak summer heat on 12 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station tracking the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Historical data for July in Seoul shows average daytime maximums around 28°C, though daily highs frequently climb into the 30–33°C range during hot, humid spells, particularly when monsoon rains pause and sunshine intensifies [2][4]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any specific outcome suggests the market may be mispriced or awaiting a definitive resolution trigger, as temperatures in this period have historically exceeded 30°C multiple times, including a record 41.2°C in July 2025 during an extreme heatwave [5].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and Wunderground’s daily history page for the Incheon station, as settlement depends solely on the highest recorded temperature at that site by 12:00 UTC [9]. Key catalysts include sudden shifts in monsoon activity, which can suppress temperatures, or prolonged high-pressure systems that drive heat indices above 34°C despite moderate air temperatures [6]. With 16 days of rainfall typical in July and humidity often exceeding 80%, a dry, sunny window today could push the peak temperature significantly above the seasonal average, making the current 0% probability difficult to justify without confirmed extreme cooling [2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.