Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 58% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Sander Berge: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 46% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 34% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 30% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 25% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 12% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 94% chance of norway vs. england - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Norway vs. England - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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