Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships have virtually stopped crossing the Strait of Hormuz as tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate following weekend military strikes. IMF PortWatch data confirms vessel traffic has plummeted by more than 95% since the Iran war began, with daily crossings collapsing from an average of 75–125 to near zero[1][6]. This ongoing crisis has effectively shut off shipping through one of the world’s most crucial energy chokepoints, where over 30,000 vessels previously passed annually[5].

Historically, such near-total shutdowns in major maritime chokepoints have persisted for months during active conflict, making the current 46% YES probability appear optimistic given the severity of the disruption[2]. Comparable cases from past regional wars show that transit calls rarely rebound until diplomatic de-escalation occurs, and no such signal has emerged yet. The market’s settlement window extends to July 2026, but the data trend suggests a prolonged absence of finalized transit numbers rather than a temporary dip[2].

Traders should monitor official announcements from the US and Iranian governments regarding potential ceasefire talks or further military escalations, as these directly dictate shipping safety[1]. Weekly IMF PortWatch revisions, released every Tuesday at 9 AM ET, will provide the next definitive data points on whether any vessels attempt transit[7]. Any sudden spike in crude oil freight indices or shipping news from ShipFinder could signal an attempted return to normalcy, though current indicators remain firmly negative[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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