Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually halted following a flare-up in US-Iran tensions, with the waterway officially closed after a brief reopening in April 2026[1][4]. Current daily transit calls sit near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels, creating a severe bottleneck for approximately 21% of global oil supply[4]. The crowd-implied 20% probability reflects the extreme difficulty of achieving a sustained seven-day moving average of 60 arrivals before the August 31 settlement deadline, given the strait remains closed as of early July[4][7].

Historical precedents for such closures suggest recovery is rarely immediate; even after the April deal that halted the war, traffic surged to only 25 vessels daily before collapsing again within a day[2][4]. A Reddit analysis of maritime data notes that reaching normal levels would require an 857% increase from current figures, highlighting the sheer scale of the deficit[3]. With recent data showing a sharp decline from 41 vessels on 1 July to 35 on 7 July, the trajectory is moving away from the required threshold rather than towards it[9].

Traders must monitor official announcements regarding a permanent ceasefire or a new diplomatic framework, as commercial shipping remains suspended without one[4]. The primary catalyst is any declaration from Washington or Tehran that allows the strait to reopen safely, alongside weekly updates from IMF Portwatch on transit calls[8]. Windward Intelligence reports that daily counts have fallen sharply over the past ten days, indicating that without a major geopolitical shift, the 60-vessel average is unlikely to materialise[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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