Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged to its highest level in two months following a deal to halt the US-Iran war, with 25 commercial vessels crossing on Thursday—more than three times the daily average recorded since early March[1]. However, the strait remains effectively closed as commercial shipping was suspended after a brief reopening, and tensions persist despite the agreement[5]. Historical precedents show that even after ceasefire deals, full restoration of transit calls to pre-war levels often stalls due to lingering security fears and unverified mine threats, which aligns with the current 5% crowd-implied probability of normal traffic returning by July 31.

Traders should monitor the US naval blockade lift deadline of July 19, a prerequisite in the June 17 memorandum of understanding that guarantees immediate commercial navigation commencement[3]. The agreement requires Iran to exert "best efforts" to restore traffic to pre-war levels within the same timeframe, though it does not clarify Iran’s ultimate authority over the strait or whether tolls may be reinstated after the 60-day toll-free window[3]. Recent reports indicate Iran has implied it may have laid mines and continues to demand permits for passage, creating a dependency on successful de-mining operations and permit normalisation before IMF Portwatch can record a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls[4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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