US announces blockade on Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States has already announced and implemented a naval blockade on Iran, with the measure taking effect on 13 April 2026 under President Donald Trump’s direction following the collapse of the Islamabad Talks [1][2]. CENTCOM confirmed the blockade encompasses the entirety of the Iranian coastline, targeting vessels entering or departing Iranian ports while explicitly allowing free navigation for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian destinations [1][4]. The blockade was subsequently lifted on 19 June 2026 after a ceasefire agreement was signed, ending the 2026 Iran war [1][9].

Given that the official announcement and imposition occurred months before the market’s creation, the event described in the market title has already transpired, rendering the current 0% YES probability a technical misalignment with real-world facts rather than a forecast of future likelihood [1][2]. Traders should note that prediction markets typically resolve based on whether the event occurred within the settlement window relative to market creation; since the blockade was announced in April 2026, it falls outside the “between market creation and specified date” condition if the market was created after that date [1].

Key catalysts for resolution include verifying the exact timestamp of market creation against the 13 April 2026 announcement date, as USNI News confirms the blockade was formally lifted by CENTCOM on 18 June 2026, meaning no active blockade exists at the time of writing [9]. Any dispute will centre on whether the market’s definition of “announces” includes the April declaration, which publicly specified the blockade’s scope and enforcement parameters [2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for US announces blockade on Iran by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Which sports markets are available?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.