Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo

Platform comparison

Market context

Terence Atmane’s match with Alejandro Tabilo at the Mubadala Citi DC Open is priced as a clear underdog for Atmane, with the crowd implying about a 23% chance he advances. The shape of the number fits the pre-match context: Tabilo is the higher-ranked player at world No. 30, compared with Atmane at No. 56, and the pair have no prior head-to-head record, so traders are leaning more on baseline level than on any matchup history.[14][1][17]

The recent form split also points towards Tabilo being favoured. Tennisratio lists Tabilo at 30-23 over the last 52 weeks, against Atmane’s 33-32, and notes Atmane has lost his last three matches and eight of his last ten.[9] Comparable spot-market pricing has therefore treated this as a ranking-and-form mismatch rather than a coin flip, which helps explain why Atmane sits well below even-money despite the absence of direct H2H data.[2][10]

What matters most now is whether either camp issues a late withdrawal or fitness update, because the market only resolves normally if the match is completed and otherwise falls to 50-50 under the stated rules. The live event pages still listed the fixture for 29 July in Washington, but they also showed that match data would only appear once play began, so any schedule change, walkover, or weather delay beyond seven days would be the main catalyst for a repricing.[4][5][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.