Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AC Horsens O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Nordsjælland O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Horsens 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Nordsjælland 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Nordsjælland (-2.5) | 1% |
| AC Horsens (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland (-1.5) | 0% |
| AC Horsens (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Horsens O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| AC Horsens O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Horsens 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Horsens 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AC Horsens 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
AC Horsens host FC Nordsjælland in the Denmark Superliga, with the market focused on whether any additional related sub-markets will be posted before the settlement window closes. FC Nordsjælland’s own match listing confirms the fixture for 26 July 2026, which makes the game itself the only firm reference point available here.[1]
A 0% YES price is easiest to read as a statement about missing market depth rather than match strength. In comparable football prediction markets, ultra-low “more markets” probabilities usually reflect the platform’s expectation that no extra derivatives will be listed once the fixture is locked in, especially when there is no obvious late-breaking team-news trigger or major scheduling uncertainty.
For traders, the main catalysts are any late squad updates, line-up leaks, or competition-driven changes that could still prompt new offers around the match. The most useful watchpoints are whether either side confirms key absences, whether there is any coaching or tactical change affecting the build-up, and whether the bookmaker/market layer adds derivative options close to kick-off. At present, the only directly sourced fact is that FC Nordsjælland’s official site carries the fixture listing itself.[1]
Sources: 1
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for AC Horsens vs. FC Nordsjælland - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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