Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5) | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5) | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5) | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
PFK CSKA Sofia host Qarabağ Ağdam FK in the UEFA Europa League qualifying tie, with the first leg having finished 0-0 in Baku last week.[8][12] That stalemate fits a broader pattern of tight meetings: the sides also produced a one-goal margin in their 2021 and 2023 European encounters, both won 1-0 by Qarabağ, so the market’s 0% YES on “More markets” is being framed against a history of low-margin, low-volatility results rather than a free-scoring matchup.[4][6]
Recent form gives traders two different signals. Qarabağ arrived off a 3-0 win over Vestri in the previous qualifying round, while CSKA Sofia had advanced past Derry City with narrow wins and then held Qarabağ scoreless away from home, which points to defensive resilience on both sides.[4][16] For a beat-report style read, BBC’s live stats summary also showed Qarabağ with 6 goals in the run-up and CSKA with 5, while both clubs had mixed recent results in friendlies and domestic matches, reinforcing that one breakthrough goal can matter more than broad attacking volume.[4]
The main catalysts are team news and any late changes to selection after the first-leg goalless draw. UEFA and live match listings confirm the second leg is scheduled for Sofia at 20:00 local time, so watch for confirmed line-ups, injury updates, and whether either coach opts for a more aggressive shape after a first leg that produced few clear chances.[2][5][9] If Qarabağ lean on the same compact approach that worked in Baku, or CSKA are missing a creator or senior defender, the price can move quickly even without a major form shock.[4][5]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK - More Markets on March Madness Predictions
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →