Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Hradec Králové (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| Tromsø IL (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-2.5) | 0% |
| Tromsø IL (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Hradec Králové meet Tromsø IL in the second leg after Hradec won 1-0 in Norway on 23 July, which is the key historical reference point for reading a 100% crowd-implied “YES” on more markets.[19][2] UEFA’s head-to-head page records that Hradec lead the only previous meeting, 1-0, while Tromsø’s recent results include wins over HamKam and Vålerenga plus a goalless draw with KFUM, and Hradec have mixed results, including a 3-3 friendly draw with Kharkiv and a 2-1 league defeat to Sparta Prague.[2][1] That profile fits a market that is already pricing in a contest with live branching possibilities rather than a settled, low-variance script.
The main trader watchpoints are team news and whether either side rotates after the first leg, because any late change to attacking personnel or full-backs can move the next-goal, cards, corners and total-shots ecosystems more than the win line itself. UEFA’s fixture timing and the live match context mean line-up confirmation before kick-off is the biggest dependency, while the BBC’s live stats page shows Tromsø have been producing both high-scoring wins and tighter, lower-event games in the same run, which makes the market sensitive to the chosen XI and game state.[12][1] A beat-style update on late injuries or suspension knock-ons would matter most if it references a striker, central defender or goalkeeper, since those positions have the clearest effect on “more markets” settlement paths.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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