Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 80% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 74% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 74% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 57% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 53% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 46% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 43% |
| Game 1 Winner | 41% |
| Game 2 Winner | 41% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 41% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 41% |
| Match Winner | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 36% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 34% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 26% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 16% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 8% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 8% |
Market context
LoL: EDward Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — current market-implied probability: 80%. This market refers to the LoL match between EDward Gaming and LGD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 14 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: EDward Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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