Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 156.5 | 100% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Cecilia Zandalasini: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 157.5 | 100% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 2H Moneyline | 91% |
| 2H O/U 78.5 | 91% |
| 3Q O/U 39.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 39.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 9% |
| Kayla Thornton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Kiah Stokes: Assists O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Cecilia Zandalasini: Points O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Jackie Young: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 78.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| Cecilia Zandalasini: Points O/U 6.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for October 7 at 9:30PM ET: If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces". If the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to "…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $977K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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