Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 14 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside the upper range bracket specified in the market's resolution criteria.

Amsterdam's August climate typically produces daily highs between 22–24°C, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or low 30s. Historical August records at Schiphol show a maximum of 30.7°C (set in 2003), with temperatures exceeding 28°C occurring roughly once per decade during summer months. The current probability reflects either a narrow upper-range threshold in the market's structure or trader consensus that typical late-summer conditions will prevail rather than exceptional heat.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasts from mid-August 2025 onwards, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or heat domes affecting the Low Countries. The Dutch Royal Meteorological Institute (KNMI) publishes extended outlooks that typically become reliable 10–14 days ahead. Schiphol's location near the North Sea coast moderates extreme temperatures compared to inland regions, a factor that should anchor expectations toward historical norms unless broader continental patterns shift significantly.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.