Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured from the Weather Underground station at Beijing Capital International Airport, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the highest recorded temperature during the full calendar day in Beijing will determine the outcome.

August represents the tail end of Beijing's summer monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 26–32°C, though extremes have reached into the mid-30s during heat waves. Historical data from the same Weather Underground station shows that 21 August readings have varied considerably year to year; the city experienced a notable heat event in August 2023 when temperatures exceeded 35°C for consecutive days. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside whichever range this market has defined as the YES outcome, indicating either an expectation of cooler-than-typical conditions or a range set at an extreme threshold.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in mid-August 2026, as seasonal patterns and any anomalous weather systems will become clearer closer to the settlement date. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength and timing directly influence Beijing's late-August temperatures; a weakening monsoon typically allows high-pressure systems to dominate, driving temperatures upward. Any tropical cyclone activity affecting northern China in late August could suppress temperatures significantly, which would be reflected in official weather alerts issued by Chinese authorities in the days preceding 21 August.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.