Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's maximum temperature on 14 August 2026 will be recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders have until the morning of 14 August to assess forecasts before the day's peak heat is recorded.

Chengdu experiences consistent summer heat in mid-August, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28–35°C during this period. August 2023 saw peak temperatures of 32–34°C across multiple days, whilst August 2024 recorded similar patterns with occasional spikes to 36°C. The current 0% crowd probability suggests markets are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about the specific temperature bands available for resolution. Comparable August dates at Shuangliu show that temperatures below 28°C are rare, making extremely low ranges unlikely outcomes.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF) as mid-August approaches, particularly any alerts for heatwaves or unusual atmospheric patterns affecting the Sichuan basin. Rainfall events in early August could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems typically drive peaks toward 34–36°C. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations and Day High & Low sections has resolved differently in past weather markets, so confirmation of which specific station reading applies will be critical once 14 August data publishes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.