Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 36°C | 100% |
| 30°C or below | 0% |
| 31°C | 0% |
| 32°C | 0% |
| 33°C | 0% |
| 34°C | 0% |
| 35°C | 0% |
| 37°C | 0% |
| 38°C | 0% |
| 39°C | 0% |
| 40°C or higher | 0% |
Market context
On 14 August 2026, Chongqing will experience peak summer heat, with the market seeking to predict the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport Station that day. The resolution will depend on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces different readings when multiple sensors or measurement times are involved.
Chongqing's August temperatures have historically ranged between 32°C and 40°C, with the city ranking among China's hottest urban centres during summer months. The Jiangbei station, situated in the northern part of the municipality, typically records slightly lower peaks than some inland districts but remains subject to the same subtropical high-pressure systems that dominate the region. August 2024 saw peak temperatures of 38–39°C across multiple days, whilst August 2023 recorded several days above 37°C, providing a reasonable baseline for expected ranges two years forward.
Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically offer reliable 10-day outlooks for major cities. The timing of any typhoon activity affecting eastern China in mid-August could materially alter Chongqing's weather pattern, potentially bringing cloud cover and precipitation that would suppress peak temperatures. Urban heat island effects around the airport station may intensify readings during clear, high-pressure conditions. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 August, meaning final temperature readings will be confirmed only after local observations conclude.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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