Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 14 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station determining the outcome. August is consistently Guangzhou's hottest month, with daily maxima typically ranging between 32–35°C, though occasional heat waves push readings above 36°C. The city's subtropical climate, influenced by the South China Sea and urban heat island effects, creates conditions where temperatures frequently exceed 34°C during mid-August.

Historical records from the past decade show that extreme heat days (above 37°C) occur in roughly 15–20% of August days in Guangzhou, whilst readings above 38°C remain relatively rare, occurring in fewer than 5% of cases. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a specific temperature threshold to be breached, likely one set considerably higher than typical August conditions. Comparable August periods at Baiyun station have produced maxima ranging from 33°C to 37°C, with the highest readings typically occurring during sustained high-pressure systems or tropical weather patterns.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August 2026, as such systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or intensify heat through atmospheric circulation changes. Weather forecasts issued in the week preceding 14 August will provide critical information on pressure patterns and moisture levels. The settlement window closes at midday on 14 August, meaning final resolution depends on observations recorded up to that point at the designated airport station, not summary figures from other weather reporting sources.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.