Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station will determine this market's resolution. The measurement will be drawn from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section, with any discrepancy resolved in favour of the former. Guangzhou's August climate typically produces daily highs between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 36°C.

Historical August data from Guangzhou Baiyun shows that temperatures exceeding 37°C occur in roughly 15–20% of years, whilst readings above 38°C remain relatively uncommon at approximately 5–10% frequency. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold that sits below typical August maximums, or uncertainty about the exact settlement range boundaries. August represents peak summer in Guangzhou, with consistent heat and humidity; the airport station's location and measurement protocols remain stable year to year, making historical comparisons reasonably reliable for calibration.

Traders should monitor tropical weather systems and potential typhoon activity in late August 2026, as these can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation or, conversely, drive extreme heat in the days preceding storm arrival. China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August will provide seasonal outlooks. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 21 August, so local Guangzhou observations must be finalised before that point. Any technical issues with Weather Underground's data recording or station maintenance should be tracked, as these could affect resolution clarity.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.