Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 13 August 2026, with resolution based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the final temperature reading will be captured before the market resolves.

New York City's August temperatures typically range from 75°F to 88°F, though the city has recorded highs exceeding 95°F during heat waves. Historical data from LaGuardia shows that mid-August peaks average around 82–84°F, with extreme outliers occurring roughly once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside the upper range bracket being offered, reflecting baseline seasonal norms rather than exceptional heat conditions.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the broader atmospheric pattern developing across the northeastern United States in early August 2026. Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts and upper-air models from late July onwards, as these will indicate whether high-pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns are positioning themselves over the region. Any significant heat dome or stalled frontal system could materially shift temperature expectations. The specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—means traders must familiarise themselves with how Weather Underground records data at the LaGuardia station, as discrepancies between reporting methods have occasionally created resolution ambiguities in weather markets.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.