Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently engulfed in an unprecedented heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport shattering long-standing records just days before the market’s settlement date. On July 3, 2026, the station recorded 104°F, breaking the 1966 record by 3°F and marking the hottest day in the city’s history for that date [3]. This extreme event has pushed midnight temperatures to 94°F, the highest ever recorded at the station, indicating that the heat is not only intense but also persistent through the night [1][4].

Historical data suggests that July 12 typically sees highs between 73°F and 91°F, with an average high near 87°F [2][9]. However, the current 2026 heatwave has already produced temperatures 15–20°F above the seasonal norm, with Newark and LaGuardia hitting 105°F and 107°F respectively on July 3 in a separate record claim [10]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for higher ranges appears to ignore this unprecedented context, as the current thermal anomaly has broken records that stood for over 150 years across a 500-mile East Coast corridor [3].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which will confirm the official high for July 12 once the day concludes [9]. The heatwave’s persistence is the primary catalyst; if the 94°F midnight record from July 4 holds as a trend, temperatures on July 12 could easily exceed the 91°F forecast ceiling [1][2]. Watch for any official NWS advisories or Wunderground updates confirming whether the extreme heat persists into the settlement window, as the current trajectory suggests a significant deviation from historical norms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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