Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an intense heat wave, with LaGuardia Airport recently recording a historic midnight temperature of 94°F (34.4°C) on July 4, 2026, breaking the previous record set in 2013[1][4]. This extreme event, where the airport reached 102°F earlier in the day, demonstrates the region’s capacity for record-shattering highs that linger well into the night[1]. Historical data from July 2026 shows daily highs ranging between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F, suggesting that while the current 0% probability for higher ranges seems low, the recent 104°F spike at both LaGuardia and Newark indicates volatility that comparable cases from 2013 and 2026 must frame carefully[5][8].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s flood watch and heavy rain forecasts, which could suppress temperatures despite the prevailing heat index[7]. The settlement window closes on July 6, 2026, at 12:00 UTC, meaning any sudden weather shifts or announcements regarding the heat wave’s persistence will directly impact the resolution source from Wunderground[3]. Recent reports from FOX News confirm that holiday travel surges are occurring alongside this extreme heat, with officials working to maintain operations despite the 94°F midnight reading, highlighting the dependency on real-time atmospheric conditions for the final temperature range[2]. The key catalyst remains whether the heat wave persists or if the incoming rain from the flood watch successfully cools the air before the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.