Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the daily maximum temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome, yet historical data and comparable markets suggest a narrow band around 24–25°C is most likely. Polymarket traders currently assign 47% probability to 24°C and 25% to 25°C, indicating the 0% figure may reflect a mispricing or liquidity gap rather than genuine disbelief[1]. Early July in São Paulo typically sees afternoon highs between 18°C and 22°C, with common readings clustering near 20–21°C, though recent heatwaves have pushed records higher, including a 36.2°C spike earlier in summer[9][6].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s official daily report for SBGR, the airport station, as it is the sole resolution source. Any sudden shifts in regional weather patterns—such as the severe heatwave recently recorded in Rio de Janeiro, where perceived temperatures reached 62.3°C—could signal broader climatic anomalies affecting São Paulo[3]. While São Paulo’s average July high is 23°C (73°F), the 2026 forecast shows daily highs ranging from 66°F to 78°F (19°C–26°C), leaving room for the 24–25°C band to materialise[4][5]. Watch for official announcements from Brazil’s weather service or local meteorological updates, as these often precede resolution data and could confirm whether the airport station aligns with regional extremes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.