Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market will resolve to whichever temperature range bracket contains that peak reading, measured in degrees Celsius. Resolution depends on the specific Daily Observations data rather than summary figures, which occasionally diverge from granular station records.

Seoul's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C during mid-August. The city's 30-year average for 14 August sits around 29.5°C, though extremes have reached 34°C on particularly intense days. Incheon's coastal location moderates temperatures slightly compared to central Seoul, creating a narrower variance band than inland stations would show. Recent years have seen occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves, but sustained readings above 32°C remain uncommon for this specific date.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in late July and early August 2026, particularly any alerts from Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat domes or typhoon activity. Tropical systems approaching the Korean peninsula in mid-August can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation or intensify heat through atmospheric pressure shifts. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 August, meaning final readings must be confirmed by Weather Underground before the market resolves, leaving minimal time for late-day temperature revisions to influence outcomes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.