Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is set to record its peak daily temperature for 11 July 2026 at the Incheon International Airport station, a metric that determines the outcome of this weather prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific outcome suggests traders believe the recorded temperature will fall outside the defined range, likely due to the region’s volatile monsoon conditions which often suppress extreme heat despite high humidity.

Historical data frames this low probability against recent extremes, such as the record-breaking 37.8°C recorded in Seoul on 8 July, the highest ever for early July [1]. However, long-term averages for the month typically see daytime maximums around 28°C, with 16 days of rainfall expected and humidity levels frequently exceeding 80% [3][4]. The disparity between the recent record spike and the typical monsoon-cooled average creates the uncertainty that drives the current pricing, as traders weigh whether the heatwave will persist or be interrupted by the seasonal rain.

Traders should monitor the short-range forecasts issued by the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the highest temperature updates released between 9 AM and 5 PM on the settlement day [9]. The primary catalyst is the timing and intensity of the Jangma monsoon rains, which concentrate heavy showers in July and can rapidly lower temperatures from the 30°C highs to near 20°C [4]. Any sudden shift in the forecast indicating a clear, sunny day without rain would be the critical signal for a temperature spike, whereas confirmed rainfall would likely keep the peak well below extreme thresholds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.