Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak of Seoul’s monsoon season, when hot, humid air and frequent heavy rainfall dominate the climate. Long-term averages place July daytime highs in Seoul around 28°C, with humidity often pushing the “feels like” temperature above 34°C at midday. The Incheon International Airport station, located just west of Seoul, typically records similar high temperatures during this period, though coastal influences can occasionally moderate extremes.

Historically, July 6 in Seoul has rarely seen maximum temperatures below 25°C, with most years clustering between 27°C and 30°C. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific low temperature range suggests traders are treating the outcome as virtually certain to fall outside that narrow band, likely due to Seoul’s consistent early-July heat. Comparable cases from the last decade show that even on rainy days, daytime highs in Seoul seldom dip below 26°C, reinforcing the view that the market’s implied certainty is grounded in climatology.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon station, especially as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on July 6. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or rainfall intensity could alter the day’s peak temperature, though such deviations are uncommon in mid-July. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts, which currently indicate cloudy conditions with a 30% chance of precipitation, may also influence the final reading. Given the monsoon’s concentration of heavy rain in central inland cities like Seoul, sustained downpours could temporarily suppress temperatures, but historical data suggests this rarely pushes highs below 25°C.

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Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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