Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s heat on 8 August will be judged by the highest reading in the Weather Underground Daily Observations table at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, so the key issue is not the broad monthly average but whether the station produces a brief late-morning or afternoon spike before the settlement window closes. The current 0% YES price implies the market is treating an extreme daily high as very unlikely, even though Shanghai’s August climate is normally hot and humid, with average highs around 32°C to 34°C and occasional surges much higher during heatwave periods.[1][2][5][7]

That historical framing matters because Shanghai has a summer profile that can look ordinary on a monthly average yet still deliver outlier peaks on isolated days. External climate summaries place August highs near 32°C, with record August temperatures around 40°C and an all-time Shanghai maximum of 41°C, while daily history pages show 8 August has historically been capable of reaching the high 30s.[1][3][5][10] By contrast, the latest Wunderground history snippet for the station shows 8/7/2026 at 95°F and 8/8/2026 at 93°F, indicating a hot but not exceptional setup around the event date.[4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s actual hourly evolution, any late changes in cloud cover, rainfall or sea-breeze influence, and whether the station’s afternoon maximum is nudged by sustained sunshine rather than a brief morning warm-up. Wunderground’s own current history page also shows 0 in precipitation for 8/8/2026, which reduces one obvious cap on the day’s high, but the settlement still hinges on the single highest observation entered in the Daily Observations table rather than the summary high shown elsewhere.[4][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.