Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% probability, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside whichever range is being offered, or that the range itself is set at an implausibly high threshold.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda have historically peaked between 32–35°C during the summer season. Data from the past decade shows that mid-August highs rarely exceed 36°C, though the 2010 heatwave pushed readings to 37.8°C. The 0% probability reading indicates either an extremely high temperature threshold in the resolution brackets or a misalignment between market expectations and the actual range options available. Traders should verify the specific temperature bands before positioning.

The settlement window closes on 14 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC, meaning the market resolves based on actual recorded conditions at that specific station. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not the Day High & Low summary—is the binding source, a distinction that matters if discrepancies emerge between different reporting sections. Traders monitoring this market should track any updates to the resolution brackets and confirm Haneda's sensor calibration status, as equipment changes or relocations could affect historical comparability.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.