Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against specific historical benchmarks. August represents peak summer in Tokyo, with temperatures typically ranging between 28°C and 35°C during this period, though extremes occasionally exceed 37°C during heat waves.

Tokyo's August temperatures have shown considerable year-to-year variation. The Japan Meteorological Agency records indicate that extreme heat events—temperatures above 37°C—occur roughly once every three to five years in the metropolitan area during August. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders believe the market's upper temperature thresholds are unlikely to materialise on this specific date. Historical data from Haneda Airport, which serves as the official weather station for Tokyo, demonstrates that whilst August consistently ranks among the hottest months, individual daily highs vary significantly based on atmospheric pressure systems, typhoon activity, and upper-air circulation patterns.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 21 August 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or tropical cyclone activity affecting the Kanto region. The resolution methodology specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, requiring careful attention to the precise measurement source. Seasonal climate patterns suggest that late August occasionally experiences cooler conditions if typhoon systems approach the region, which would suppress temperatures below typical August averages. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, allowing only morning observations to influence final outcomes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.