Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at the airport station and resolved using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than their summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the highest temperature recorded up to that point determines the outcome.

August in Wellington typically sees winter conditions with mean maximum temperatures around 12–13°C, though the city's exposed location and variable weather patterns mean daily highs can range considerably. Historical data from the past decade shows August extremes at Wellington Airport spanning from near-freezing mornings to occasional days reaching 17–18°C when northerly flows develop. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper temperature bands to remain unlikely, reflecting baseline winter expectations rather than any exceptional warming scenario.

The critical variable is whether a pre-spring northerly airflow develops during late August 2026, a pattern that occasionally pushes Wellington's daily maxima into the high teens. Traders should monitor long-range forecasts from MetService and NIWA from mid-August onwards, as these organisations typically issue outlooks two to three weeks ahead. Any indication of a high-pressure system tracking eastwards across the Tasman Sea in late August could shift probabilities materially, as such systems reliably produce warmer conditions across the lower North Island. The specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than summary highs—means traders must account for intraday temperature variation and the precise timing of peak warmth relative to the midday settlement deadline.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.