Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s official July minima are usually far above the sort of number needed for a **yes** on this market. The Hong Kong Observatory’s July ranking shows the monthly record low is **27.7°C** for the month, with several other July minima clustered between **27.3°C** and **27.6°C**, which underlines how unusual a materially cooler reading would be.[1] By contrast, a 2019 tropical-cyclone day produced a much lower **24.5°C** minimum, showing that sharp dips are possible when heavy rain and storm bands reach the territory.[3]

That makes the current **3%** crowd probability look like a bet on an outlier rather than a normal summer pattern. July in Hong Kong is typically hot and humid, with average lows around **27°C** and daily lows often staying close to the high 20s, so an official daily minimum below the settlement bands would generally require an unusually wet, cloudy, or storm-influenced morning.[2][4] For context, the Observatory’s hourly July 31 reading in 2024 was still **27°C** at 2 a.m., which is consistent with how resilient overnight temperatures can be even late in the month.[8]

Traders should watch the Observatory’s daily extract timing and any late-month weather disruption, because the market settles on the final published “Absolute Daily Min” for the date, not on intraday reports.[14] The main catalysts are tropical-system tracks, rainband timing, and whether early-morning cloud and rainfall suppress the overnight floor enough to break from the usual July range; the settlement source will only become definitive once the 31 July data is finalised.[3][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.