Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July heat is already intensifying in 2026, with the city reaching 36.8°C on Wednesday, marking an immediate seasonal record and setting a high baseline for the coming days. This early surge suggests that temperatures on 6 July will likely remain well above the 20–25°C range, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for those lower bands a rational market stance.

Historical data from recent years shows Tokyo Haneda Airport routinely hitting 26–31°C in early July, with mid-to-late July often climbing to 36–40°C amid 95%+ humidity. The 26°C outcome currently leads the Polymarket at 59%, followed by 25°C at 20%, reinforcing that traders should expect the high to fall in the 25–27°C band rather than below 24°C.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Tokyo Haneda, especially as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 6 July. Any sudden cloud cover, rain, or wind shifts could alter the peak, but given the current heatwave momentum and 2026’s record-breaking start, a dip below 24°C appears unlikely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.