Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) | 71% |
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 30% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 30% |
| Match Winner | 18% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Vici Gaming face GamerLegion in a Round 3 group-stage fixture at The International 2026, scheduled for 3:10 AM ET on 14 August. The match represents a critical juncture for both squads within the preliminary phase, where seeding implications remain fluid and early momentum carries measurable weight in determining knockout-stage positioning.
The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus dismissal. Vici Gaming enters as a perennially strong Chinese representative, though their 2026 season has been marked by roster adjustments and inconsistent performances at mid-tier tournaments. GamerLegion, a European outfit, has shown flashes of competence but lacks the institutional pedigree of their opponents. Historical precedent suggests Chinese teams typically edge European challengers in direct encounters at The International, yet recent iterations of GamerLegion have occasionally upset expectations through disciplined draughting and execution in early-game phases. The absence of clear favourite pricing signals that neither team has established dominant form heading into the event.
Traders should monitor official team announcements regarding final roster confirmations through 13 August, as last-minute substitutions or illness have disrupted International fixtures previously. Patch notes released in the fortnight before competition may disproportionately favour one team's signature heroes or playstyle. Schedule adherence remains critical; any postponement beyond 28 August triggers a 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome. Recent ESL coverage of qualifying tournaments should clarify which teams have practised together most extensively and adapted to current meta priorities.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The Inter… on March Madness Predictions
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →