Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 75% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 71% |
| Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i | 41% |
| O/U 37.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| O/U 61.5 | 26% |
| New Mexico O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| O/U 59.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| O/U 41.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Hawai'i O/U 23.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 43.5 | 16% |
| New Mexico O/U 23.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| New Mexico O/U 26.5 | 12% |
| New Mexico O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 45.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 12.5 | 10% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 47.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Moneyline | 9% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 9% |
| O/U 49.5 | 8% |
| Spread -11.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| O/U 51.5 | 6% |
| O/U 53.5 | 6% |
| O/U 55.5 | 6% |
| Spread -12.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -15.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -28.5 | 3% |
| Spread -22.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| O/U 57.5 | 2% |
| O/U 67.5 | 2% |
| Spread -24.5 | 2% |
| O/U 63.5 | 1% |
| O/U 65.5 | 1% |
| Spread -30.5 | 1% |
| Spread -27.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
New Mexico vs. Hawai'i. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 41% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-18T02:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $218K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for New Mexico vs. Hawai'i. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23ef4444%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23ef4444%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade New Mexico vs. Hawai'i on March Madness Predictions
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →