Highest temperature in Munich on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station on 14 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with measurements taken from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source rather than summary figures. Munich's August climate typically produces daytime highs between 24–27°C, though heat waves can push temperatures into the low 30s. The settlement window closes at midday on the date itself, meaning traders must assess conditions based on seasonal patterns and any emerging weather forecasts as the date approaches.

Historical August data from Munich Airport shows that temperatures exceeding 30°C occur in roughly one-third of years, whilst readings above 32°C remain relatively uncommon. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect a cooler-than-average day, though this assessment may shift substantially once meteorological forecasts become available in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026. Seasonal variability in Central European summer weather means early-August patterns often prove unreliable predictors for mid-month conditions.

Traders should monitor European weather models and forecasts released in late July and early August 2026, as these will provide the most reliable indicators of high-pressure systems or frontal activity affecting Bavaria. Any significant heat wave warnings issued by Germany's meteorological service would represent a material catalyst for reassessing probabilities. The specific resolution methodology—relying on Weather Underground's Daily Observations rather than alternative sources—means familiarity with that platform's Munich Airport data collection methods will prove valuable for traders evaluating edge cases near range boundaries.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.