Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Wellington International Airport using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution based on the most granular recorded data rather than summary high-low figures. August is Wellington's winter month, with typical maximum temperatures ranging from 11–13°C, though the city's exposed location and variable weather patterns mean daily highs can fluctuate considerably.

Historical August records for Wellington show maximum temperatures typically cluster between 8°C and 16°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 18°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a particularly cool day or are uncertain about the specific threshold ranges available. Wellington's southerly latitude and maritime exposure mean winter days are influenced by Southern Ocean systems; cold fronts can suppress temperatures sharply, whilst föhn-like nor'west winds occasionally drive warmer readings. Comparable August days in recent years have produced highs between 10–14°C under typical conditions.

The key dependency for traders is the accuracy of Weather Underground's station data collection at Wellington Airport on the settlement date. Meteorological forecasts issued in early August 2026 will provide the primary catalyst for reassessing probabilities, particularly any warnings of unusual weather systems. Traders should monitor whether any scheduled maintenance or sensor changes affect data recording at the station, as the market explicitly references the Daily Observations table as the binding resolution source. Real-time temperature readings from the airport will become critical in the final hours before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.